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这期刊发的《工作论文》是由郑秉文撰写的《Population ageing and the impacts of the universal Two-child policy on China’s socio-economy》。如引用,请注明出处并征得本实验室(世界社保研究中心)或作者本人取得联系——编者的话

 

Population ageing and the impacts of the universal Two-child policy on China’s socio-economy

 

Bingwen Zheng

Center for International Social Security Studies(CISS),

Chinese Academy of Social Sciences(CASS), Beijing, P. R. China

Email: zhengbw@cass.org.cn

 

ABSTRACT

The Two-child policy was officially proclaimed in the Guideline of the 13th Five-Year Plan and approved in March 2016. This article provides a detailed analysis of the Chinese demographic structure characterised by ageing with sub-replacement fertility. It argues that the universal Two-child policy is timely and necessary for the new Normal Economy. The policy has significance in relieving socio-economic pressure and promoting economic growth, for which it is not only a necessary premise but also a sufficient condition. Having reviewed the evolution of the demographic transition theory, this research undertakes a comparative analysis of different stages of demographic transition in different regions across the world. It further investigates the three stages of successful demographic transition in the People’s Republic of China. The universally adopted Two-child policy, as it meets the requirements and law of demographic transition, is also unavoidable with socio-economic development.

KEYWORDS:Population ageing, ageing with sub-replacement fertility, One-child policy, demographic transition, universal Two-child policy

 

 

In March 2016, the Guideline of the 13th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development, P.R.C. (later abbreviated as the Guideline of the 13th Five-Year Plan) officially announced the government’s policy on universally allowing all couples to give birth to two children .

The Chinese President, Xi Jinping, pointed out in a speech at the end of 2015 that China’s demographic structure is obviously characterised by ageing with sub-replacement fertility. This expression not only indicates the trend of Chinese demographic evolution in the near future but also explains the main reason why China has to universally adopt the Two-Child Policy.

 

Ageing with sub-replacement fertility: inversion of the Chinese demographic structure is inevitable

 

The definition of ageing with sub-replacement fertility

The phenomenon of ageing with sub-replacement fertility is both a feature and a trend of the evolution of the demographic structure in China. Sub-replacement fertility and ageing are not totally homogeneous, which are related to each other. They may appear in one economy at different times. In the static condition in which external factors such as migration are not considered, there are two issues that lead to population ageing: one is the increase in life expectancy led by an improved living standard and health care, which becomes the so-called longevity risk; the other is the process of sub-replacement fertility, which, given a fixed life expectancy, can invert the demographic structure.

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